(Ogadentoday Press)- The Ogaden region of eastern Ethiopia has been marred in an active insurgency for the past 20 years between the Ogaden National Liberation (ONLF) and the Ethiopian government. This insurgency has caused immense suffering and prosecution to the population of this region and has barred the government of Ethiopia influence and control. As things currently stand Ethiopia’s ambition to extend control to this region and gain access to natural resources is hopeless without the cooperation of ONLF.
ONLF has multiple times dissuaded oil giants such as Petronas after they have signed multimillion dollar concession from the Ethiopian government. Those companies (Chinese oil fields in Obole) that have turn a deaf ear to ONLF’s warnings and have haphazardly ventured in to this region have seen the reality on the ground. Similarly, Ethiopian failed to develop proper government administrations in this region since 1994 when ONLF was compelled to pursue armed insurgency. ONLF on its part found it difficult to overcome Ethiopia’s military presence in this region and thus far has struggled to transition its
insurgency into major cities such as Gode and Jigjiga. Ethiopia’s ambition to finally extend some form of legitimate influence in the Ogaden region and gain access to natural resources combined with ONLF’s inability to extend its insurgency to Major cities have forced both parties to seek negotiations as a way out of this stagnation. This article explores motivations that have precipitated expected negotiations between ONLF and the Government of Ethiopia.
The current Ethiopian government has been ruled by Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) since the over throw of the Mengistu government in 1991. ONLF, for a period of time in the early nineties, worked with the new EPRDF government to establish regional government in the Ogaden per the new constitution of Ethiopia. This working relationship deteriorated after EPRDF stifled efforts to exercise constitutional rights and eventually precipitated in armed insurgency after
Ethiopia has gunned down many ONLF leaders and political officers in towns across the Ogaden region. Ethiopia deployed heavy military presence ever since (1994) and attempted to maintain military siege in
a region the size of almost twice the size of UK. According to published World Bank report published in 2012 30% of Ethiopia’s central government expenditures was allocated for the military. With an estimated 400,000 plus military personnel Ethiopian has been in a perpetual war with the ONLF since 1994 and sees this intractable conflict as an impediment to its development and risk to its stability and future survival as a country.
In addition, Ethiopia has seen how Kenya has dealt with its Somali region and how it turned what Ethiopia has experience as an intractable problem to an advantage. Just like Ethiopia, Kenya has substantial Somali population in its northeastern region and has integrated it’s Somali nationals within the wider Kenyan population. Currently Kenya carries a leadership role both politically and economically in East Africa largely due in part to its Somali population. The Current Kenyan foreign minister (Miss. Amina Mohamed) and defense minister (Mr. Mohamed Yussuf Hajji) are both Somali Kenyans that have served their country greatly. In addition civil servants such as Ahmed Issac Hassan (head of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission) have forever shaped Kenyan as a country through the establishment of a modern constitution and the execution of peaceful election that have ushered in the current government of Kenya. In addition progress in the fields of natural resources within this region are accessible to the Kenya government without any problems. Just recently oil was discovered in the outskirts of Garissa county. Seeing the success of the Kenyan government with its Somali population has
shown Ethiopia how futile oppression and prosecution in the Ogaden region is and has motivated it to perhaps try and emulate some of Kenya’s approaches.
On its part ONLF has maintained true to its fighting principal to fully exercise its constitutional right (stated so in the Ethiopian constitution) for free expression up-to and including self-determination by way of popular referendum. The Ethiopian government has interfered with this constitutional right and has for the past two decades refused to acknowledge this right to the people of this region. ONLF was forced to an armed insurgency by the circumstances thrust upon it by EPRDF in the early nineties and has always stated its openness to negotiations. ONLF has witnessed the lack of development, oppression, and painful persecution of its people and has many times participated in negotiations with the Ethiopian government.
ONLF recognizes that the gains of an armed insurgency would only be realized through political settlement and has thus far seen negotiations as a transition from an armed insurgency.
In addition ONLF has been encouraged by the presence of third party negotiators that could possibly (it’s not clear what their capabilities are) hold Ethiopia to any agreed negotiated settlement. Third party actors from regional governments (specifically Kenya), regional organization such as IGAD, international organization such as EU and observers from European countries such as UK are all said to be present in the upcoming negotiations. These bodes well for ONLF as it shows a level of openness that has thus far lacked in previous negotiations.
People from the Ogaden are closely following the expected second round of negotiations between ONLF and Ethiopia. Cognizant of the current stagnation some are hopeful that these negotiations might lead to a way out of this intractable conflict. Others, informed by previous negotiations, see these as nothing more than a ploy by Ethiopian government to disrupt and create division within the organization. Still others see this negotiations as advantageous to ONLF who can
diplomatically bolster its international support, further develop legitimacy and friends across East African and eventually overcome challenges to its armed insurgency. Whatever the outcome of the expected negotiations the motivation for its inception is clear.
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